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New mortgage rules cooling home sales across the country, report suggests

(Stock image)

(Stock image)

Published on September 24, 2012
Published on September 24, 2012
The Canadian Press ~ OBJ  RSS Feed

Canada's housing market appears to be cooling across the board in the face of tighter mortgage rules that affect many first-time buyers of modest means, a new analysis from the Conference Board shows.

Topics :
Canadian Real Estate Association , Vancouver , Victoria , Regina

The think-tank's snapshot of resales for August shows a widespread decline in sales of existing homes, with 21 of 28 metropolitan markets registering a drop from July, and 16 of the markets showing a falloff of five per cent or more.

As well, listings fell in 17 of the 28 markets, an indication that owners were reluctant to place their homes for sale due to soft conditions.

Senior economist Robin Wiebe of the Conference Board said there was evidence of cooling in some markets - particularly Vancouver and Victoria - before the new rules went into effect July 9. But the new data shows the slowdown has spread to most markets and from coast to coast.

"When you see sales down in three-quarters of the market, that means it's pretty widespread," he said. "It's knocked down previously high-flying markets like Regina and Saskatoon down a peg. Vancouver had been showing signs of cooling, now it's spread out into the Fraser Valley."

At the time Finance Minister Jim Flaherty announced maximum amortization period for mortgage would be reduced to 25 years from 30 years, the government estimated it would increase monthly payments by $184 on a $350,000 mortgage.

It had been the fourth time Flaherty tightened mortgage requirements in four years, but the July measure was regarded as the one likely to be the most effective.

While sales and prices were only temporarily sidetracked by the previous announcements, only to recover a few months later, this might "be the one that broke the camel's back," said Wiebe.

Last week, the Canadian Real Estate Association reported that sales of existing homes fell 5.8 per cent in August from July, and were down 8.9 per cent from August 2011.

Still, the latest data shows that while sales and listings are down, prices appear to be holding steady.

The report found prices fell in only nine of the 28 markets in August from the previous month. Compared to last August, prices were up in 25 markets.

Economists have generally been forecasting a correction of between 10 and 25 per cent in prices over the next two or three years. Vancouver, which had for years been Canada's hottest market, has seen a tumble of about 30 per cent in resale homes.

But Wiebe is not so sure the correction will be as severe as many predict, or that Vancouver's market is as cold as the numbers suggest.

He notes that Vancouver's average home prices are skewed by the number of high-end property sold - many to investors from China. Both the meteoric rise and current decline are "overstated," he said.

Homes in the Toronto area, Canada's largest market, are also likely to retain their value, he said, because the economy in the city remains healthy and the greater metropolitan area continues to experience strong population growth.

Comments

  • Username
    Watchdog
    - September 25, 2012 at 09:35:10

    Watchdog will forgo any rhetoric and analysis for what is a very bad idea to subject first time homes owners and those people who want to sell their homes to these draconian rules. What with property taxes on the increas (or so we are told), many of the baby boomers on fixed incomes cannot afford their homes any more and they must sell. Wait, they cannot sell because of these stupid new rules which prevent first time home owners from buying. So what do the baby boomers do. Continue to pay high property taxes, rediculous utility fees, HST (compliments of McGuinty) etc, and start to eat dog food? Or, maybe they just walk away from their home. No matter how you slice the cake, this is just one more way that the government is pushing the middle class to extinction. Watchdog has always maintained that all finincial decisions should be put to a vote by the population.. no inuendo, no hidden agenda. Ask point blank questions to the population to vote on (after all this is supposed to be a democracy). Or is it! Right now we are under the thumb of a Constitutional Dictatorship where this government can do anything that they want and there is nothing the middle class can do about it. They have an agenda Canada!

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