"People cannot continue to postpone purchases forever," says Barry Nabatian, general manager of Market Research Corp., a retail industry analyst firm. He predicts this year's holiday shopping season will ring in around 10 per cent more sales for Ottawa's retailers than 2008.
Greg Best is chair of the Glebe BIA and owner of a number of local stores including Pom Pom Boutiques in the Glebe and on Greenbank Road, Bank Street Framing and Frou Frou, a women's apparel shop in the ByWard Market. He's less optimistic about the holidays than Mr. Nabatian. "I would suggest it's going to be flat," he says.
But Denis Pelletier, general manager of Bayshore Shopping Centre, says he's upbeat about December. "It's looking better than last year," he adds. "We were all hit hard by the transit strike."
The 53-day strike was just one event that conspired against last year's Christmas spree, alongside a global financial meltdown that kept many shoppers from making big purchases. But for some retailers, the strike was an opportunity to try out new ideas. Bayshore implemented a "Ticket to Ride" promotion, offering shoppers a $5 voucher to put towards cab fare.
The shopping centre received an award from the International Council of Shopping Centers for that, Mr. Pelletier says.
For other stores, however, the effects of the bus strike continued well beyond February. "Customers have switched their transportation habits," Mr. Nabatian says, explaining that many shoppers who used to rely on public transit to get around turned to cars and cabs instead, and many have stayed away ever since. That's led to their abandonment of transit-friendly stores in favour of those with parking lots.
Retailers on Bank Street were particularly hard-hit this year, Mr. Nabatian says. Not only did they face the transit strike, but construction along the road also kept shoppers away. To this day, he says many Bank Street businesses are barely holding on - and that others have closed for good. And for 2010, Mr. Nabatian says retailers in the Glebe need to prepare for a tough year as the construction on Bank moves south into their neighbourhood.
"There's no question businesses are going to suffer. No one knows how many will go under."
But 2009, of course, wasn't all bad. Mr. Nabatian notes that job growth returned to the National Capital Region in June, adding many of the previously jobless have found work. Indeed, Mr. Pelletier says Bayshore was back on its feet early in the year: "(Bayshore) rebounded out of the second quarter ... The third quarter was pretty successful.
"With the government and other factors, our economy rebounded a little better than others," Mr. Pelletier adds. He says Bayshore attracted new high-profile tenants in 2009 including beauty product retailer Bath & Body Works and clothing store Jack & amp; Jones.
The mall also houses a newly expanded Winners with an attached Home Sense decor store.
But there are times when federal workers stop shopping - during elections, for instance. When the government's about to change, no one can be sure that their positions will still exist under the new administration.
"The city tends to lock down," says Mr. Best.
He says he's also noticed shifting holiday shopping patterns. The Christmas season isn't as long as it used to be, he says - most people now begin making purchases later in the year. And whereas retailers used to be able to count on weekends being busier than weekdays, that's not the case anymore. Flexible work hours enable shoppers to visit stores pretty much anytime it strikes their fancy.
"It's no longer as predictable as it used to be," Mr. Best says. That makes it difficult to plan the staff schedule during the busy season. "A Tuesday could be just as busy as a Saturday."
It all adds up to a mixed bag for retail, he says. On one hand, since the holiday shopping season isn't as long, Christmas isn't necessarily the retailer's make-or-break moment anymore, so a disappointing Christmas probably won't kill a company the way it might have in the past.
But the new retail order still presents challenges, such as staffing issues, Mr. Best notes. As well as the unpredictable busy periods, businesses will soon need to account for a higher minimum wage in March. There's a new harmonized sales tax as well, combining the provincial and federal sales taxes as of July 1, potentially increasing at-till prices.
Retailers will need to use all of their resources to thrive, he says. For his shops, he's ramping up promotions on new items to entice customers into the stores and adjusting his inventory levels, acquiring fewer items more frequently to test the market and go with what sells. "You can be a little more nimble on your feet."
And at least for the holidays, it seems retailers might be able to rest assured that sales won't be as bad as they were in 2008. "There is hope and some good news" such as signs that the economy is improving, Mr. Nabatian says. "Last year, it was all bad news."
